Magassági hidegörvény peremén MKR érkezhet, ill. szupercellák sodródhatnak a déli határvidékre
Derick, 2014, július 10 - 08:39
Makroszinoptikai áttekintés:
Summary:
We issue Category 1 because we expect a formation of mesoscale convective system (MCS) which can cause extensive heavy rainfall (>50 mm/3h) and/or flash floods due to orography.
MKR, délen és a Tisza vonalában 1-2 szupercella
devilstorm21, 2014, július 8 - 21:46 Összefoglalás:
Summary:
We issued category 1 for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts (90 km/h), flash floods and severe hail (2-3cm) over Hungary, mainly to the east of the River Danube. One or two supercellular storm possible near the southern border of the country and embedded in the eastern MCS.
Zivatarrendszerek, akár heves eseményekkel
Neofita, 2014, július 7 - 16:19 Szinoptikus helyzet, összefoglalás:
Summary:
We issue Category 1 because a formation of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) is probable which can cause large hail (between 2cm and 5cm) or/and strong windgusts (between 90 and 120 km/h) or/and heavy rainfall over a smaller part of Hungary
Hidegfront
Anarki, 2014, július 1 - 21:35
Érvényes: 2014.07.02. 08:00 - 2014.07.03. 08:00
Szinoptikus helyzet, összegzés:
We issue Category 0 because there is a slight chance that multicells form over North Hungary which may cause severe events (windgusts between 90 km/h and/or large hail between ~2cm and/or locally heavy rain) but their formation is highly uncertain due to the problematic distribution and evolution of instability and moisture fields.
Vasárnap estétől akár szupercellás konvekció, hétfő nappal becsúszhat egy-két szignifikáns heves esemény
szupercella.hu, 2014, június 29 - 15:13
Összegzés:
Summary:
We issued category 2 for severe and/or locally significantly severe thunderstorms with destructive wind gusts, flash floods and severe hail (~3cm) over Hungary, mainly to the east of the River Danube.
In the next 24-36 hours a very complex weather situation is on the way with multiple severe thunderstorm outbreaks.
A mid tropospheric longwave trough with attendant cyclonic jet-streak is advecting eastward during this period. At the surface a waving cold front approaches the country and on Monday a surface low may develope. The model outputs predict 500-1500J/kg SBCAPE (slight uncertainity in diurnal heating), ~19oC surface dew points and high Thompson index overlap strong deep layer shear (20-25m/s) with favorable helicity environment, which is supportive to supercellular convection. The strong forcing (considerable low level convergence, vorticity advection and jet divergence) instability and high precipitable water (36-38mm) may cause one or two MCS on Monday in the afternoon/evening. These MCS-s may also have embedded supercells/bow echo segments. One or two isolated supercells may be tornadic (mainly along the axis found between the Bükk Mountains and Csongrád county) but the sufficiency of the environmental parameters might be uncertain to some degree.
Hazards:
- Flash floods: excessive rain might occur in some places (locally >50 mm) which may cause flash floods (mainly in the NE mountainous areas and in the evening hours).
- Hail: possibly around 3cm diameter
- Wind: damaging wind possible in some places (90-100 km/h) but locally can be higher (~ 120 km/h).
- Tornadoes: there is a chance for a mesocyclonic tornado or funnel cloud (<EF2) to develope in the aforementioned areas.
Érvényes: 2014.06.29 22.00 – 2014.07.01 06.00
Elsősorban a déli országrészben lehet még néhol heves esemény
Neofita, 2014, június 24 - 01:35
Összegzés:
Summary: we issue Category 1 because instability and wind shear is sufficient for supercell development
Itt-ott heves események, egy-egy izolált szupercella
Storman, 2014, június 23 - 10:56 Szupercella lehetősége délnyugaton és északkeleten nagy bizonytalanság mellett
Derick, 2014, június 20 - 06:30 Összefoglalás:
Summary:
Category 0 was issued for low chance of supercells/strong multicells and it’s accompanying marginal severe weather events (slight risk for large hail (~2 cm) and wind gusts (>80-90 km/h) or excessive precipitation (>25-30 mm)). Along convergence zones an non-mesocyclonic funnel cloud or tornado event is not ruled out. Today’s weather is determined by a cold front and behind aloft a rapid moving short wave trough from northwest to southeast. Today the main issue would be that we could see significant wind shear (mainly in the southwest) with really uncertain instability (typically with low CAPE values) conditions.
Szeszélyes és meglehetősen száraz hidegfront
Neofita, 2014, június 12 - 10:00
Összefoglalás:
Gyengülő, feloszló hidegfront esetleges heves eseményekkel
Anarki, 2014, június 10 - 14:23 Érvényes: 2014.06.11. 08:00 - 2014.06.12. 08:00
Összefoglalás:
We issue Category 0, because we expect the formation of supercells only in several places and these supercells can cause large hail (between 2cm and 5cm) or/and strong windgusts (between 90 and 120 km/h). The uncertainty of the situation is rather high due to the various predicted distribution of moisture which may result in the inhibition of deep and severe convection.
